Russia’s advertising market has entered a period of profound transformation. After two years of explosive growth driven by post-invasion economic restructuring and the exodus of Western platforms, the industry is now facing a sharp slowdown. In 2026, the market is projected to surpass 2 trillion rubles, but growth will decelerate from 26% in 2025 to approximately 24%.
Yet beneath this headline figure lies a more complex story. While traditional media grapples with stagnation and rising costs, digital sectors—particularly e-commerce and retail media—continue to surge. The industry is not shrinking; it is restructuring. And at the center of this transformation stands Telegram, a platform whose uncertain fate has become both a driver of growth and a source of systemic risk.
The Big Picture: A Market Catching Its Breath
After a remarkable 2024, when the advertising market grew by nearly 40%, 2025 saw a significant deceleration to 10–14% growth, bringing the market to approximately 1–1.2 trillion rubles. For the first time in its history, the Russian advertising market crossed the 1 trillion ruble threshold in 2025.
The outlook for 2026 suggests continued moderation. Forecasts vary: some analysts predict growth of 6–15%, reaching 1–1.4 trillion rubles, while others anticipate a more robust 24% expansion pushing the market beyond 2 trillion rubles. The discrepancy reflects deep uncertainty about macroeconomic conditions, regulatory interventions, and consumer behavior.
What is clear is that the era of double-digit growth across all segments has ended. The market is entering a phase of selective expansion, where some channels thrive while others stagnate or decline.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: The Interest Rate Effect
The primary force slowing the advertising market is Russia’s tight monetary policy. The Central Bank’s high key interest rate—maintained through much of 2025—has curbed consumer lending and dampened purchasing power. As consumers tighten their belts, businesses grow more cautious about marketing expenditures.
“The high key rate and cautious consumer activity reduce businesses’ willingness to invest in large-scale image campaigns,” explains Anastasia Dunaeva, head of PR and communications at Demis Group. Companies are shifting away from brand awareness campaigns toward performance marketing—channels where return on investment can be measured with precision.
The situation is compounded by broader economic cooling. Despite a rate cut beginning in autumn 2025, business sentiment has not yet rebounded. Slowing economic development continues to pressure marketing budgets.
Adding to the pressure is rising media inflation. In 2025, the average cost of advertising placements increased by approximately 15% across traditional media channels. Television saw the steepest increases at 25–30%, followed by out-of-home (OOH) at 23–27%, and digital services at 13–18%. Media inflation is expected to reach 28% in 2026. In many segments, nominal growth has been driven primarily by rising prices rather than increased volume.
Segment Performance: Winners and Losers
Out-of-Home: The Unexpected Star
The most surprising performer in 2025 was the out-of-home (OOH) segment. According to Okkam, OOH grew by 43% to reach 103.8 billion rubles. Other agencies reported more moderate figures—12–23% growth—but still placed the segment at 107–119.4 billion rubles.
The surge reflects increased demand from e-commerce players and marketplaces, which have aggressively purchased digital OOH inventory. The scarcity of quality inventory, combined with multiplying demand, has driven up prices and made OOH one of the most competitive segments.
Television: Stable but Slowing
Television advertising remains a cornerstone of the market, with volumes reaching approximately 270–308 billion rubles in 2025. Growth ranged from 10% to 21%, depending on the source. The segment’s resilience is supported by major advertisers from the finance and FMCG sectors, as well as continued activity from retailers.
Smart TV is emerging as a notable sub-trend, with a growing share of TV advertising migrating to connected devices.
Digital and Internet: The Dominant Force
The internet remains the largest advertising channel, accounting for 570–621 billion rubles in 2025 according to most estimates. Growth ranged from 10% to 25%, depending on how broadly digital is defined.
However, even digital is slowing. Growth in the digital segment is projected to drop from 8% in 2025 to just 5% in 2026. The market is becoming saturated, and platforms are running out of high-quality inventory.
Radio and Print: The Struggling Legacy
Radio advertising showed mixed performance, with estimates ranging from a 1% decline to 19% growth, settling at approximately 24–26 billion rubles. The segment is increasingly confined to niche applications, such as local targeting and background contact.
Print media continues its long decline. Most agencies report a 2.5–5% contraction, with volumes stuck at 3.7–5 billion rubles. Even when including digital editions, print advertising remains in structural decline.
E-commerce and Retail Media: The Unaccounted Giant
The most significant growth story exists outside traditional metrics. E-commerce and retail media—which the Association of Communication Agencies of Russia (AKAR) does not include in its official calculations—expanded dramatically in 2025. Okkam estimates this segment grew by 73% to reach 891 billion rubles.
This explosive growth reflects the transformation of Russian retail. Marketplaces like Wildberries, Ozon, and Yandex.Market have built sophisticated advertising ecosystems, allowing sellers to bid for placement within search results and product listings. For many brands, retail media has become the primary marketing channel, offering the dual benefits of precise targeting and direct attribution to sales.
The Top Advertisers: A Shifting Landscape
The composition of Russia’s largest advertisers reveals broader trends in the market. According to data from Group4Media and Mediascope, the top five advertisers in 2025 were:
| Rank | Company | 2025 Spend (billion ₽) | Change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sber | 34.9 | -17% |
| 2 | VTB | 18.3 | +30% |
| 3 | Ozon | 16.1 | +1% |
| 4 | T-Technologies | 15.9 | +6% |
| 5 | Yandex | 14.6 | -19% |
Sber retained the top position despite cutting spending by 17%, largely due to the discontinuation of media support for its Megamarket platform. Yandex fell from second to fifth place, reducing investments by 19% as it shifted focus toward digital channels, which now account for approximately two-thirds of its marketing budget.
VTB was the standout performer, increasing spending by 30% and climbing from fifth to second place. The bank relies heavily on television and internet advertising.
Ozon and T-Technologies showed modest growth of 1% and 6%, respectively. Ozon explained its restrained approach as a strategic shift toward efficiency: “At our current stage, we are focused on increasing the effectiveness of each channel and their contribution to business results”.
Experts note that the top 15 advertisers remain highly concentrated in traditional media, creating high barriers to entry for smaller players. The major ecosystems—Sber, Yandex, T-Technologies—account for approximately 45% of the market and are now moving from market conquest to portfolio efficiency, further slowing budget growth.
The Telegram Factor: Growth Amid Uncertainty
No discussion of Russia’s advertising market in 2026 is complete without addressing Telegram. The messaging platform has become a critical infrastructure for native advertising, influencer marketing, and direct response campaigns. Its growth has been explosive: Telegram Ads saw annual investment growth of up to 150% in 2025.
However, Telegram’s future in Russia is uncertain. In February 2026, Roskomnadzor announced plans to restrict the platform’s functionality, citing failure to comply with Russian laws. The nature of these restrictions remains unclear, but they could range from slowing connection speeds to a complete block.
The response from advertisers was counterintuitive: rather than pulling back, they rushed in. According to CloudBuying, advertising volumes on Telegram surged 15–20% immediately following the announcement, on top of a 50% year-on-year increase. Daily ad posts rose from 30,000–45,000 at the beginning of the year to 50,000–52,000 in mid-February, peaking at nearly 52,000 posts and 163 million views on February 12.
By early March, daily integrations had settled at 44,000–45,000—still significantly above early-year levels. Demand remained strong, with retailer budgets growing 1.7 times, marketplaces 3.1 times, and the financial and insurance sectors doubling their spending.
Industry analysts interpret this surge as a “dash to the finish”—advertisers accelerating planned campaigns in anticipation of future restrictions. The Association of Bloggers and Agencies has warned that a complete Telegram ban could halve the platform’s advertising market, which it estimates at 60 billion rubles.
The situation exposes a vulnerability in Russia’s advertising ecosystem. “Replacing the platform with other channels without losing effectiveness is difficult and costly,” experts note. Telegram has become too central to abandon easily, yet its continued operation is not guaranteed.
Key Trends Shaping the Market in 2026
1. The Efficiency Imperative
With budgets under pressure and media inflation eroding purchasing power, advertisers are ruthlessly prioritizing measurable results. According to a report from the partnership platform Admidad, 50% of Russian companies will abandon ineffective and expensive tools in 2026, retaining only those that directly impact revenue.
Reach-based campaigns are giving way to targeted placements. Performance marketing, retail media, and influencer marketing are the primary beneficiaries of this shift.
2. Native and Influencer Integration
Advertising is increasingly adapting to native content, becoming an organic part of the user experience. Influencer marketing is strengthening its position, with lifestyle bloggers in highest demand.
The focus is shifting from one-off collaborations to long-term partnership projects. Budgets for working with content creators are increasing, provided that return on investment can be measured.
3. Multi-Platform Presence
Advertisers are developing pools of distribution channels that generate orders and increase turnover. Being present across all platforms—from mobile apps to marketplaces, from websites to offline points—is becoming the new normal.
4. Automation and API Integration
The development of automated order transfer via API between partner platforms and seller systems is gaining traction. Zero-click methods accelerate the checkout process for buyers and reduce lost conversions by eliminating the need to navigate to the seller’s website.
5. Advanced Tracking and Transparency
For platforms where link-based tracking is impossible—such as social networks and audio podcasts—personal tracking promo codes are being deployed. SKU-based order tracking is also developing.
The overarching trend is demand for statistical transparency and near-real-time campaign data. Solutions that provide predictable ROI and detailed, verified analytics are winning.
6. Banking Apps as an Advertising Channel
Users of banking applications represent a warm audience that can shorten the path from first touch to purchase. The variety of solutions available through banking apps allows advertisers to select options relevant to their specific business.
Risks and Outlook
Several factors could derail current forecasts:
Macroeconomic deterioration. A prolonged period of high interest rates or a sharp economic contraction would further suppress consumer activity and advertising budgets.
Regulatory tightening. Beyond Telegram, Roskomnadzor has proposed restrictions on broadcasting “non-traditional sexual relations” and “sexual deviations,” which could affect content-based advertising.
E-commerce slowdown. Retail media has been a primary growth driver. If online retail growth decelerates, so will the advertising segment built upon it.
Platform dependency. The market’s reliance on key platforms, particularly Telegram, creates systemic risk. Any disruption to these platforms would cause “jump-like hyperinflation and a sharp rise in the cost of target actions”.
Despite these risks, the medium-term outlook remains positive. The market is expected to reach 1.7 trillion rubles by the end of 2026. The growth will be uneven—favoring digital, performance-driven, and retail-integrated channels over traditional media—but growth will continue.
Russia’s advertising industry in 2026 is an industry in transition. The breakneck expansion of 2023–2024 has given way to a more measured, efficiency-driven phase. Advertisers are no longer chasing reach; they are demanding results. Traditional media are struggling to justify their costs, while retail media and influencer partnerships are thriving.
The uncertainty surrounding Telegram encapsulates the industry’s broader challenge: how to build sustainable marketing strategies on platforms whose future is subject to regulatory whim. For now, advertisers are betting on the platform’s continued operation—but they are placing those bets faster than ever, as if racing against a clock they cannot see.
Whether Russia’s advertising market can sustain its momentum through 2026 will depend less on creative innovation and more on forces far beyond the industry’s control: interest rates, consumer confidence, and the Kremlin’s tolerance for platforms it does not fully control.