The Russian interior materials market in 2026 is a complex landscape defined by two opposing forces. On one hand, the market is in a state of deep structural transformationârecovering from the initial shock of 2022 while adapting to a “new normal” of high interest rates, cooling construction, and a fragmented supply chain. On the other hand, it is a market that has found a surprising equilibrium, not through explosive growth, but through a fundamental shift in consumer behavior: a move from “big renovation” to the “economy of coziness.”
đ A Market Under Pressure: The Macro Story
The headline figures for the wider DIY market (home and construction goods) paint a clear picture of decline. In the second half of 2025, the market contracted by 3.5% year-on-year to 3.52 trillion rubles, with a more pronounced drop expected in the first half of 2026.
The primary driver is the cooling housing market. Housing completions in the first eight months of 2025 fell by 5% to 67.5 million sq. m., directly reducing the need for large-scale finishing materials. This has hit the B2B segment hardest, with a projected decline of 6.5% in H2 2025, as developers and professional clients pull back.
| Indicator | H2 2025 vs H2 2024 |
|---|---|
| DIY Market Turnover | -3.5% (to 3.52 trillion rubles) |
| B2B Segment | -6.5% (to 1.87 trillion rubles) |
| Hard DIY (Retail) | -8%+ (in monetary terms) |
đď¸ The Consumer Shift: From “Hard” Renovation to “Soft” Coziness
Within this decline, a powerful counter-trend is reshaping the market. Consumers are not abandoning home improvement; they are redefining it. Faced with high mortgage rates and an uncertain economic outlook, large-scale renovations are being postponed in favor of smaller, more frequent, and emotionally driven purchases.
This is reflected in the changing structure of the DIY market:
- The “Home Improvement & Coziness” category is now the fastest-growing segment, reaching 1.4 trillion rubles in 2025, or 34% of the entire retail segment.
- In contrast, the “Construction & Site Organization” segment contracted by 5%.
- Demand for interior design services has grown significantlyâup 12.3% year-on-year in June 2026, as homeowners seek professional help to update their spaces efficiently.
This “coziness economy” is driven by a profound emotional shift. The home has become a psychological anchor in a turbulent world, and consumers are investing in comfort, aesthetics, and personal expression, often through affordable decorative items like textiles, vases, and candles. The rise of e-commerce and marketplaces has made this easier than ever, with decorative items like throws and panels seeing explosive growth on platforms like Ozon.
đ Import Substitution: A Tale of Two Realities
The story of import substitution is one of significant success in some areas and persistent dependence in others.
The Success: Mass-Market Furniture
The furniture industry has been a clear winner. The share of imports in furniture consumption plummeted from 41.3% in 2020 to just 18.7% by the end of 2025. The value of domestic furniture production more than doubled in that period, from 227 billion to 522 billion rubles. Local manufacturers have filled the 20% gap left by departing international brands, with many factories that were once subcontractors now developing their own brands.
The Challenges: High-Tech Components and Complex Materials
Despite this success, the deeper layers of the supply chain remain vulnerable.
Imported Components Remain a Bottleneck: The industry is still heavily reliant on imported fittings, specialized paints, and fabrics. Localizing production of complex components like modern furniture hinges is often economically unviable, as the domestic market alone cannot justify the investment. As one expert notes, “to make a factory pay off, you need to produce more than the entire Russian industry requires”.
The Stone Market is a Stark Example: The quartz agglomerate market serves as a case study. With only one domestic quartz factory producing about 1,100 tons per year against a total market of 16,000 tons, local production covers less than 7% of demand. The vast majority of quartz and 100% of acrylic stone for countertops is still imported, primarily from China and South Korea. Domestic manufacturers have focused instead on adding value through sophisticated CNC machining and processing of imported stone.
High-Tech Dependency: Even where local production has grown, key technological dependencies remain. The market for decorative PVC films, for instance, is around 40,000 tons, but about 90% is imported, mainly from China and South Korea. Investment in a new factory aims to address this, but it highlights the gap that still exists. The market for interior solutions is expected to remain a “hybrid model,” combining local production with imported components and technologies.
đ¸ The Unresolved Questions: Price, Trust, and the “Quality” Premium
The transition has not been smooth. The average cost of interior projects has risen by 20-40% since 2022, and lead times for complex materials have increased by 1.5 to 2 times.
This has shifted consumer priorities. The key decision factor is no longer “which is cheaper” but “which is better quality and more durable”. This is a critical shift. Consumers are more willing to pay for durability and craftsmanship, particularly as they are engaging in smaller, more frequent, and more personal projects.
đ Outlook
The Russian interior materials market has not collapsed; it has reorganized. It is a market that has moved past the “emergency adaptation” phase and is now in a period of “sustainable local production”. However, this new equilibrium is fragile. It is characterized by a polarization between successful mass-market furniture and high-end niche materials, a “coziness economy” that is thriving, and a construction sector that is in a downturn. The key to the market’s future will be whether domestic producers can continue to deepen their local supply chains for complex components and specialized materialsâa challenge that will require significant investment and time to overcome.
