Russia’s commercial real estate market has entered a fundamentally different phase. The era when international companies and investment funds dominated the ownership landscape has ended. By 2026, domestic private capital, corporations, and closed-end funds have become the primary drivers of investment activity, creating an ownership structure substantially different from the pre-2022 market. Yet this transformation is unfolding unevenly across sectors, with offices facing a demand slowdown, warehouses confronting oversupply, and retail navigating structural shifts in consumer behavior.
Investment Activity: Stable Volume, Shifting Composition
Total investment in commercial real estate reached 559 billion rubles in the first nine months of 2026, a modest 2.4% decline year-on-year. Including land plots and development projects, the figure rose to 840 billion rubles, essentially flat compared to 2025. Moscow and the Moscow region absorbed 78% of commercial real estate investment, totaling 436 billion rubles, while St. Petersburg accounted for 59 billion and other regions 64 billion.
The third quarter saw a notable acceleration, with deal volume reaching 241 billion rubles, up 7.6% year-on-year. However, the market’s dependence on individual large transactions remains pronounced. In the second quarter, just two major deals accounted for 70% of all commercial real estate investment.
Stressful assets have become a defining feature of the market. Transactions involving auctions, loan collateral liquidations, and confiscated property reached 229 billion rubles, representing 27.2% of total investment in commercial real estate and land. Warehouses accounted for 66% of these distressed investments, largely driven by the sale of former Raven Russia assets.
The Office Sector: Headquarters Displace Rental Projects
The office segment illustrates how the changing buyer base is reshaping transaction structures. While offices remained the largest investment segment at 208 billion rubles (37% of total), this represented a 32.6% decline year-on-year.
The most significant structural shift is the rise of owner-occupied offices. Between 2022 and 2026, new headquarters and build-to-suit projects totaled 1.07 million square meters, nearly double the 2017–2021 figure. Of the 720,000 square meters scheduled for 2025–2026, 91% consists of headquarters, with only 9% for expansion or other corporate needs.
This shift reflects a fundamental change in economics. In 2011–2021, an average of 59% of new office construction was designated for lease. In 2022–2026, that share fell to 36%—a 23 percentage point decline. After the key rate increase, borrowed funds became more expensive than office project yields, making speculative construction unattractive. The share of office space listed for sale rose from 8% to 28% over the year.
Demand from end-users has correspondingly surged. The average annual volume of office sale transactions in 2022–2026 reached 494,000 square meters, 2.2 times higher than the 2011–2021 average. In the first half of 2026, primary office sales in Moscow totaled 302,900 square meters, up 87.6% year-on-year.
However, supply is expanding rapidly. The volume of office space offered for sale grew 45% year-on-year to 1.1 million square meters by mid-2026. The weighted average price reached 506,900 rubles per square meter, up 12% year-on-year, though price growth is decelerating—from 16% in 2024 to 12% in 2025 to a projected 10% in 2026.
The Warehouse Sector: Record Construction Meets Cooling Demand
Warehouses present a starkly different picture. Investment in the segment surged 94.5% to 184 billion rubles (33% of total), driven primarily by the sale of approximately 2 million square meters of former Raven Russia assets.
But beneath this investment headline lies a market entering a cooling phase. Construction reached record levels: 6.5 million square meters completed in the first eleven months of 2025, 71% more than the same period a year earlier. For 2026, developers have declared construction of 14 million square meters, which even if half is completed would match 2025’s unprecedented volume.
Demand, however, is falling. The volume of warehouse transactions is expected to reach 4.5 million square meters in 2025, a 30% decline. Rental rates in the Moscow region fell from 13,000 rubles per square meter annually in January to a projected 10,500 rubles by year-end—a nearly 20% drop. Vacancy rates rose to 4.9% in the capital region, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Novosibirsk reaching 10.7%.
The sector faces a “hidden vacancy” problem: subleased space, premises planned for imminent release, and the high volume of new completions in 2025–2026. As one analyst noted, “the warehouse market for the first time in many years faced a situation where supply substantially exceeds real demand.”
Retail Real Estate: Divergent Signals
Retail investment reached 115 billion rubles, up 29.6% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total commercial real estate investment. Private investors showed particular interest in retail assets, with privately controlled capital representing a substantial majority of investment activity in the sector.
Moscow is expected to see nine new shopping centers open in 2026, totaling approximately 167,000 square meters. Regionally, developers are more active: 71% of new shopping center construction is occurring outside Moscow and St. Petersburg, where market saturation remains lower.
However, the sector faces structural headwinds. The vacancy rate in Moscow shopping centers is projected to rise from 6.2% in 2025 to 8.3% by the end of 2026, driven by retail optimization and changing consumer patterns. The fashion segment is particularly vulnerable, especially mass-market and conceptually outdated formats.
The nature of shopping centers is itself changing. Five years ago, classic retail accounted for 70% of space; today it is 50%, and within 2–3 years it may fall to 40%. Large centers are transforming into entertainment, community, and sports hubs with a reduced retail component. Approximately 10% of existing complexes may close or be repurposed in the coming years.
The Rise of Domestic Private Capital
The most consequential transformation is the changing identity of buyers. During the first half of 2026, private Russian investors accounted for approximately half of commercial property investment. In the retail segment, privately controlled capital represented a substantial majority of activity.
This shift extends beyond simple substitution for departing international buyers. Russian private investors are increasingly operating at transaction sizes and across property sectors previously associated with institutional funds. Closed-end funds (ZPIFs) have become a critical mechanism: in the office segment alone, funds invested a record 35 billion rubles in the first three quarters of 2026, 2.8 times more than a year earlier. Offices accounted for 52% of all ZPIF investment in real estate.
A distinctive feature of this domestic-capital market is fragmented ownership. Rather than purchasing entire buildings, a significant proportion of office activity now involves individual floors, sections, or blocks within larger properties. This lowers the capital required for individual acquisitions and distributes economic ownership across a broader group of investors.
Outlook
The Russian commercial real estate market is not collapsing but fundamentally restructuring. Total investment volume has remained relatively stable, yet the composition has shifted decisively toward distressed assets, owner-occupied offices, and domestic private capital.
The office sector faces a paradox: record new supply of 1 million square meters in Moscow by year-end—the highest since 2014—alongside growing end-user demand from corporations seeking headquarters. Price growth is decelerating as competition intensifies.
Warehouses confront the most challenging near-term outlook, with record construction colliding with declining demand and falling rents. The market’s adjustment may extend through at least the first half of 2026.
Retail’s future depends on whether shopping centers can successfully transform from pure retail venues into mixed-use community destinations. The rise of e-commerce, now accounting for over half of non-food retail, will continue to pressure traditional formats.
For investors and developers alike, the market’s defining characteristic is no longer growth but adaptation—to higher financing costs, to a domestic-capital-dominated ownership structure, and to sectors that are diverging sharply in their fundamentals.
