Introduction
Western sanctions have reshaped Russia’s export economy since 2022, forcing dramatic shifts in trade partners, payment systems, and supply chains. As we enter 2025, these restrictions continue to evolve—impacting key industries from oil and gas to technology and agriculture.
This article examines:
✔ Which sanctions remain in force in 2025?
✔ How Russian exports have adapted (or struggled)?
✔ Which sectors are thriving despite restrictions?
✔ Future risks and opportunities for traders.
1. Key Sanctions Still Affecting Russia in 2025
A. Financial Restrictions
- SWIFT bans on major banks (Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank).
- Asset freezes on $300B+ of Russian central bank reserves.
- Secondary sanctions threatening third-country intermediaries.
B. Trade Embargoes
- EU/US ban on Russian oil, gas, and coal (with price caps).
- High-tech export controls (semiconductors, aviation parts).
- Luxury goods & dual-use item restrictions.
C. Transport & Logistics Barriers
- Ban on EU ports/Road transport for Russian trucks.
- Insurance restrictions on tankers carrying Russian oil.
2. How Russian Exports Have Adapted
A. The “Shadow Fleet” Economy
- 1,500+ old tankers now transport Urals oil outside Western oversight.
- Ship-to-ship transfers near Greece/Singapore obscure origins.
B. The Ruble-Yuan Payment System
- 80% of China-Russia trade now settled in yuan/rubles.
- Gold & cryptocurrency used for high-risk transactions.
C. New Trade Corridors
- North-South Route (India-Iran-Russia) – Rail and Caspian Sea links.
- Arctic Shipping – LNG exports via Northern Sea Route.
3. Sector-by-Sector Impact in 2025
| Industry | Sanctions Impact | Adaptation Strategies |
|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | -40% EU sales, but Asia fills gap | Shadow fleet, yuan payments |
| Metals | Aluminum/steel bans in West | Türkiye/China as middlemen |
| Agriculture | Minimal impact (wheat flows freely) | Ruble-based deals with Africa |
| IT & Tech | Brain drain but still outsourcing | Crypto payments, UAE shell firms |
4. Unexpected Winners & Losers
Winners
✅ China – Gets cheap oil, boosts machinery exports to Russia.
✅ India – Saves $15B/year on discounted Russian crude.
✅ Armenia/Kazakhstan – Re-export hubs avoiding sanctions.
Losers
❌ European manufacturers – Lost $60B+ in Russian market access.
❌ Baltic states – Former transit hubs now economically strained.
5. Future Risks & Opportunities
Risks
⚠ Tighter secondary sanctions (e.g., targeting UAE/Türkiye traders).
⚠ Russian production declines due to tech embargoes.
Opportunities
🔹 Africa/ASEAN demand growth for grains and fertilizers.
🔹 Domestic tech substitution (Russian-made chips by 2027?).
Conclusion: The New Rules of Russian Trade
- Forget Europe – Asia/Middle East are now primary markets.
- Avoid USD – Yuan, dirhams, and crypto are safer.
- Expect inspections – Customs scrutiny is rising globally.
“Sanctions didn’t kill Russian exports—they just made trade more creative and less transparent.”